In 2009 the Green Party and the BNP were locked in a very close battle for the last seat in the North West European Election region. Heavyweight endorsements from Frank Cottrell-Boyce, Alexei Sayle, Salma Yaqoob and Respect, the lead candidate of Libertas, the Community Action Party in Wigan, and others for the Green Party very nearly got the result that most people in the North West would have preferred – the Greens winning a seat with Nick Griffin going home empty handed.
Imagine what that would have been like. Andrew Brons would still have won for the BNP in Yorkshire and Humberside, and they would have been plunged into an immediate power struggle, rather than Nick Griffin being given extensive airtime on the BBC to propagate his hatred.
Instead, we know what actually happened. By a margin of less than 5,000 votes (or 0.3% of the electorate) Nick Griffin won. The BNP got 8% and the Greens got 7.7% meaning that anti-racist campaigner and trade unionist Peter Cranie lost out. That win has been worth a lot of money to Griffin personally (who has still managed to end up bankrupting himself) but also to fund a BNP office in the North West and employ BNP members as staff. Their whole survival now hangs on whether they can hold onto their North West seat.
So what are the lessons from 2009:
1. NO2EU and the Socialist Labour Party (SLP) gained a combined 3% of the vote between them. If these parties hadn’t stood and urged a tactical anti-racist vote instead, it is highly likely that at least 1 in 10 would have backed the Greens instead and kept Griffin out.
2. The Labour Party was highly unpopular. A current Liverpool Labour MP told Peter Cranie he had voted Green because he wanted Gordon Brown toppled as Prime Minister and replaced by David Miliband. But Labour activists went out delivering leaflets that said “only a vote for Labour can stop the BNP”. It was a lie. Labour were miles away from being able to play that role and claiming that you are the “only” vote to stop the BNP is simply false in a Proportional Representation system.
3. A lot of people simply didn’t believe that the BNP could win a seat. They were sure that it couldn’t happen. Turnout was low, people stayed at home and they didn’t realise that the danger was clearly there.
4. UKIP’s vote went up and the BNP’s share of the vote went up. The agenda in the European Elections was set by the expenses scandal. As far right anti-establishment parties both benefited. Assuming that UKIP would take BNP votes away was wrong.
5. The Greens were too nice. We didn’t try to make populist capital out of the expenses scandal. We didn’t attack other parties in the North West for standing a list when it helped the BNP or for lying on their leaflets when it would mislead voters about the best way to keep Griffin out.
So how do we learn the lessons from 2009? What can be done differently?
1. The Greens are already calling on NO2EU and the SLP to engage in dialogue about the European Elections in the North West. So far this has been rebuffed. On the other hand, Left Unity is engaging positively and there is a hope at least. Alec McFadden as a former NO2EU candidate has taken a strong lead on this.
2. Labour are repeating their claim, with a slightly different “only a strong vote for Labour” can get Griffin out. Peter Cranie has written to them stating this is simply false and has had a holding response from the widely respected Julie Ward, who was elected at number 4 on the Labour list, but now as number 3 is almost certain to become a Euro MP. However Labour are continuing to deliver the leaflets, and Cranie may go on to make a formal complaint to Miliband and to the Police if this continues.
3. Even now, there are people who are saying that the BNP can’t possibly win again. They are too divided. They’ve lost members. People won’t make the mistake again. No one saw the expenses scandal coming and the BNP will react to and seize on any and every opportunity to hold on if news stories help it. Just imagine multiple sexual grooming scandal involving non-white British men in the run up to polling day.
4. UKIP’s current strength in the media and the polls means that immigration and anti-European feeling are big campaign themes. Unsurprisingly, the BNP benefits from these being in the news. Farage has to sound not entirely hysterical about it, but that leaves room for Griffin to peddle an extreme line which will win votes back from overtly racist and nationalist individuals.
5. The Greens are still being pretty reasonable. We haven’t launched waves of attacks on NO2EU, the SLP or the Labour Party. That is probably not in our playbook. Instead there is still an attempt to engage but this is currently being rebuffed by others, with Left Unity a notable exception.
The Wythenshawe and Sale East byelection is probably the last test of electoral strength above council level in the North West before the European Elections. The Greens finished just ahead of the BNP in the battle for 5th place (by 0.1%), but there was no socialist candidate standing (TUSC got 0.7% in the 2010 General Election). Of course, the Lib Dems, Greens and BNP experienced a squeeze as the media made this a contest between Labour and UKIP.
Those that are saying that the BNP are finished will be surprised to see that they lost just 0.9% of their vote, despite a huge media onslaught promoting UKIP. In a proportional election, the Lib Dems, Greens and BNP will do much better and if only 7.5% of the vote is needed to win a seat, Griffin could lose support and still hold onto his seat.
So the question, for the Greens and everyone else in the North West is, have we learned from our mistakes in 2009? What will happen next and can we make sure it is a Green, and not Griffin, elected to represent the North West in May?
To support the Greens, visit Green Action, and help Peter Cranie beat the BNP.
